Market watchers note that UAE fuel prices for November are likely to rise as international Brent crude climbs past the crucial $116 a barrel mark. However, prices have experienced some oscillations during the final week of October. Also, brief retreats at the start of the week quickly gave way to a sharp upward surge. This quick price spike remains highly important ahead of the country’s upcoming monthly fuel price review.
Meanwhile, international benchmarks have registered notable gains recently. For example, Brent crude gained over 1.05 per cent to reach $116.1 per barrel on Friday. In addition, US West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.18 per cent to settle at $103.2 per barrel. As a result, December Brent futures rose toward $117 a barrel, while more heavily traded January contracts traded above $112. Furthermore, the benchmark has climbed significantly from below $97 at the very beginning of October.
Crude oil surge and regional tensions
Oil prices started climbing again as growing signs indicate potential US military strikes on Iran. However, this situation raises fresh risks of instability in a region central to global energy supplies. Consequently, the ongoing increase raises the possibility of higher UAE fuel prices for November. However, final adjustments depend entirely on international crude and refined product prices throughout the entire monthly pricing period. Readers can explore more updates on the Dubai property market for broader economic context.
Current October figures show petrol set at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98. Also, Special 95 costs Dh4.28, while E-Plus 91 stands at Dh4.21. Diesel currently costs Dh4.80 per litre. Previously, the three petrol grades increased by approximately 16 per cent from September figures. Meanwhile, diesel costs rose by 11.6 per cent over the same period. Therefore, a 60-litre fill of Special 95 costs Dh256.80 today compared to Dh221.40 in September.
Shipping risks and transport costs
Geopolitical tensions and security concerns over shipments from the Middle East continue to drive oil prices upward. Despite signs that exports from Gulf producers are recovering, the Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty. Moreover, attacks on vessels and regional infrastructure have increased overall shipping risks. For example, Goldman Sachs estimates that average global oil transportation costs jumped from $3 per barrel last year to over $20. On some specific Middle East routes, rates have even reached $35 per barrel.
Furthermore, the bank warned that prolonged shipping disruptions could keep crude prices well above its baseline forecast of $90 a barrel by late 2026. Conversely, shipping data indicate that Gulf producers have successfully restored significant export volumes through alternative routes. This operational adjustment helps offset some ongoing supply disruptions. Meanwhile, media reports indicate that a senior military commander briefed officials regarding potential military options recently.
Evaluating UAE fuel prices for November
Monday’s fall in crude prices could ease some immediate pressure on UAE fuel prices for November. However, Brent remains substantially above its starting level from early October. The UAE’s monthly fuel price mechanism reflects broader international market conditions rather than single-day movements. As a result, the overall October trend remains much more relevant to upcoming rates than a single day’s decline.
Further easing in refined product prices could limit any potential increase. Conversely, sustained prices above $110 will maintain strong upward pressure. October petrol figures still remain below record levels reached in July 2022. At that time, Super 98 cost Dh4.63, Special 95 cost Dh4.52, and E-Plus cost Dh4.44 per litre. Currently, Super 98 and E-Plus sit 23 fils below those historical records. Special 95 remains 24 fils lower than its previous peak.
Future outlook for motorists
An increase exceeding those differences would push respective petrol grades above their July 2022 records. However, current data provides insufficient information to predict whether the upcoming monthly adjustment will reach that magnitude. If November prices increase by 10 fils per litre, motorists would pay an extra Dh6 for a 60-litre fill. Alternatively, a 20-fils increase would add Dh12 to the total cost. Motorists can review official tariff announcements through the UAE Government Portal for verified updates.
Ultimately, latest crude price movements suggest that upward pressure on UAE fuel prices for November remains elevated. Higher shipping costs and continued uncertainty over regional supplies support this outlook. However, recovering Gulf exports and recent price dips could help moderate the final increase. Another rise remains entirely possible for the upcoming month. Yet, the exact direction and final size of the adjustment cannot be confirmed until official figures are announced at the end of the month.
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